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France: Hollande Holds Polls Lead

  • April 16th, 2012
  • Posted by EUEditor

hollande-francois-2.jpgLess than a week before the presidential elections in France, voter intention polls continue to predict a victory for the Socialist Party candidate, Francois Hollande (picture), over the incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy.

A round-up of the main polls this month, 1-13.4.12, shows them agreed on the two leading candidates each getting 27 or 28%; but with Mr Hollande winning the second round run-off between the two, 55-45%.

It represents a very stable pattern over the full length of the election campaign.

Marine Le Pen, for the right-wing anti-immigration National Front, has picked up some percentage points, towards 17%, on the back of a campaign revived by the shootings at Toulouse last month (19.3.12), and subsequent police crack-down on suspected militants.

She has denounced “violence in the suburbs”, since the gunman believed to have killed a man and three children, and earlier, two off-duty soldiers, was tracked down by police and killed in a wild shoot-out.

The suspect had been under watch, along with his brother, an Islamic militant under detention.

Several arrests have followed; but voters look to have signaled more immediate interest this time in the state of the economy — anxiety about debt and recession winning out over other fears.

See also, EUAustralia Online, “France: shooting crimes at Toulouse”, 20.3.12.

Media reportage has leaned towards considering a win for Francois Hollande as well and truly on the cards.

Autour de Hollande, le bal des prétendants aux ministères est ouvert, said Le Monde, 14.4.12 (The dance of candidates for ministerial jobs around Hollande has begun).

A Marseille, Mélenchon dit vouloir “expédier à terre” Sarkozy, it said, the same day. (Malenchon wants a quick burial for Sarkozy); the communist-led Left Front was speaking optimistically, at the first of a series of huge rallies – more than 100 000 estimated at the gathering in Marseilles.

The first round of voting begins on 22.4.12, with the two leading  candidates facing off in a second round, a fortnight later.

See polls, Sondages en france: la politique en france a travers les sondages, (French opinion polls, French politics represented across surveys).
http://www.sondages-en-france.fr/sondages/Elections/Pr%C3%A9sidentielles%202012, (16.4.12).