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France: Poll Annoints Hollande PS Front-Runner …

  • August 26th, 2011
  • Posted by EUEditor

hollande-francois-2.jpgAn extensive poll in France has put the former Socialist Party (PS) secretary, Francois Hollande (picture), in the box seat to become the party’s candidate in presidential elections next year.


The telephone poll of 3677 persons, matching profiles of the French population over 18,  was conducted by Ipsos-Logica Business Consulting, from 16-22.8.11 for Le Monde and a consortium of four main broadcasting channels.

It was set up as a curtain-raiser for primary elections the party is planning for six week’s time.

royale-segolene.jpgAccording to a report in the newspaper, Mr Hollande got 42% of votes, his closest rival Martine Aubry had 31%, and Segolene Royale, 57, (picture) the PS candidate in 2007 and former life partner of Francois Hollande, 18%.

An analysis of preferences shows that the competition is far from over.

Half the voters said they might change their mind, and there would be a  good drift of votes from Segolene Royale, after her elimination in a first round of voting,  to Ms Aubry.

aubry-martine.pngMartine Aubry, 61, (picture) is a Minister from previous PS governments, a parliamentary Deputy and Mayor of Lille, and daughter of Jacques Delors, the former President of the European Commission.

A break-down of the votes by issues and values gives an edge to Mr Hollande on virtually every point, e.g. to unite the country, or deal with a financial crisis.


The poll indicates that 9 % of the French population might vote in the Socialist Party primary on 9.10.11; 3.8-million people, providing a publicity fillip to the party and some credit for its openess.

As may be the way with primaries, some 18% of respondents to the poll said they were visitors, being supporters of parties to the left of the PS, and Greens, while another 8% said they were supporters of the governing UMP, and other right wing parties.


Francois Hollande, 57, an economist and legal advocate by profession, now a member of parliament from the Correze region (South Central France), was overseer of a renewal of his party’s platform and strategies in the current decade, and has campaigned for expansion and consolidation of the European Union.

He has benefited from the absence in the field of the former front-runner for PS nomination, Dominique Strauss-Kohn, 62, the then Director General of the International Monetary Fund caught up in a sex scandal last May, in New York. (This week, charges in that case were dropped, prosecutors saying the complainant, a hotel chamber maid, had been telling them lies; a civil case may be launched). See EUAustralia Online, “The Strauss-Kahn court case turn-around …”, 4.7.11; “One Queen, one ‘ladies’ man’ …”, 18.5.11.

sarkozy-bruni-europe1fr.jpgThe victor in the primary elections is most likely to go on to a contest with President Nicolas Sarkozy, (picture, with his wife Carla Bruni), who has been embattled at times over his austerity plans, but has not confirmed rumours that he might step down at the end of his term.

See also, EUAustralia Online, “France: Shaping up to test for Sarkozy’s job”, 30.8.10.


Thomas Wieder, François Hollande favori de la primaire socialiste, selon un sondage exclusive, (Francois Hollande favourite for the Socialist Party primary, according to an exclusive poll), Le Monde, Paris, 26.8.11., (26.8.11).

Pictures  Wikipedia