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France: Hollande Holds Polls Lead

  • April 16th, 2012
  • Posted by EUEditor

hollande-francois-2.jpgLess than a week before the presidential elections in France, voter intention polls continue to predict a victory for the Socialist Party candidate, Francois Hollande (picture), over the incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy.

A round-up of the main polls this month, 1-13.4.12, shows them agreed on the two leading candidates each getting 27 or 28%; but with Mr Hollande winning the second round run-off between the two, 55-45%.

It represents a very stable pattern over the full length of the election campaign.

Marine Le Pen, for the right-wing anti-immigration National Front, has picked up some percentage points, towards 17%, on the back of a campaign revived by the shootings at Toulouse last month (19.3.12), and subsequent police crack-down on suspected militants.

She has denounced “violence in the suburbs”, since the gunman believed to have killed a man and three children, and earlier, two off-duty soldiers, was tracked down by police and killed in a wild shoot-out.

The suspect had been under watch, along with his brother, an Islamic militant under detention.

Several arrests have followed; but voters look to have signaled more immediate interest this time in the state of the economy — anxiety about debt and recession winning out over other fears.

See also, EUAustralia Online, “France: shooting crimes at Toulouse”, 20.3.12.

Media reportage has leaned towards considering a win for Francois Hollande as well and truly on the cards.

Autour de Hollande, le bal des prétendants aux ministères est ouvert
, said Le Monde, 14.4.12 (The dance of candidates for ministerial jobs around Hollande has begun).

A Marseille, Mélenchon dit vouloir “expédier à terre” Sarkozy
, it said, the same day. (Malenchon wants a quick burial for Sarkozy); the communist-led Left Front was speaking optimistically, at the first of a series of huge rallies – more than 100 000 estimated at the gathering in Marseilles.

The first round of voting begins on 22.4.12, with the two leading  candidates facing off in a second round, a fortnight later.

See polls
, Sondages en france: la politique en france a travers les sondages, (French opinion polls, French politics represented across surveys).
http://www.sondages-en-france.fr/sondages/Elections/Pr%C3%A9sidentielles%202012, (16.4.12).

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